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Aluminium Arak vs Qashqai Shiraz — Azadegan League 2018

Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
FT
1 – 0
Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
3/16/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 28Imam Khomeini Stadium (Arak)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Aluminium Arak53%
×Draw28%
Qashqai Shiraz19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aluminium Arak
1.38
Qashqai Shiraz
0.69

Aluminium Arak creates 100% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 68 away

creates per match

Aluminium Arak
1.47
Qashqai Shiraz
0.81

allows per match

Aluminium Arak
0.56
Qashqai Shiraz
1.29

finishing

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par
Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminium Arak ↓

Qashqai Shiraz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Aluminium Arak or draw
81%
Aluminium Arak or Qashqai Shiraz
72%
Draw or Qashqai Shiraz
47%

Winning margin

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
26%
Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
75%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
40%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
16%
Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
50%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
15%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
74%
Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminium Arak at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.56 · 32 matches

Qashqai Shiraz away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.29 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminium Arak attack 1.47 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.81 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Aluminium Arak scores more
53%
level
28%
Qashqai Shiraz scores more
19%

Aluminium Arak at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Aluminium Arak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aluminium Arak vs Qashqai Shiraz

Aluminium Arak beat Qashqai Shiraz 1-0 in Azadegan League on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at Imam Khomeini Stadium (Arak).