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Qaradağ Lökbatan vs Mingəçevir — Birinci Dasta 2019

Qaradağ Lökbatan
Qaradağ Lökbatan
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
12/7/2023Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 10Türk Hava Yolları Futbol Mərkəzi IV meydança

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Qaradağ Lökbatan47%
×Draw26%
Mingəçevir27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.53
Mingəçevir
1.09

Qaradağ Lökbatan creates 40% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 56 away

creates per match

Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.39
Mingəçevir
1.05

allows per match

Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.13
Mingəçevir
1.68

finishing

Qaradağ Lökbatan+0.00on par
Mingəçevir+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qaradağ Lökbatan ↓

Mingəçevir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Qaradağ Lökbatan or draw
73%
Qaradağ Lökbatan or Mingəçevir
74%
Draw or Mingəçevir
53%

Winning margin

Qaradağ Lökbatan wins by 2+
24%
Mingəçevir wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Qaradağ Lökbatan 1+ goals
78%
Qaradağ Lökbatan 2+ goals
45%
Qaradağ Lökbatan 3+ goals
20%
Mingəçevir 1+ goals
66%
Mingəçevir 2+ goals
30%
Mingəçevir 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Qaradağ Lökbatan (draw refunded)
64%
Mingəçevir (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qaradağ Lökbatan at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.13 · 76 matches

Mingəçevir away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.68 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qaradağ Lökbatan attack 1.39 + Mingəçevir defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.53

Mingəçevir attack 1.05 + Qaradağ Lökbatan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Qaradağ Lökbatan scores more
47%
level
26%
Mingəçevir scores more
27%

Qaradağ Lökbatan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Qaradağ Lökbatan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Birinci Dasta: Qaradağ Lökbatan 3–0 Mingəçevir

Qaradağ Lökbatan beat Mingəçevir 3-0 in Birinci Dasta on December 7, 2023.

The match was played at Türk Hava Yolları Futbol Mərkəzi IV meydança in Baku.