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Mingəçevir vs Qaradağ Lökbatan — Birinci Dasta 2019

Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Qaradağ Lökbatan
Qaradağ Lökbatan
K. Muradov 90+4'
E. Alizada 57'
M. Tahirov 27'
X. Basirov 11'
5/22/2024Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 27Yaşar Məmmədzadə adına şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Mingəçevir41%
×Draw27%
Qaradağ Lökbatan32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mingəçevir
1.35
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.17

Mingəçevir creates 15% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 76 away

creates per match

Mingəçevir
1.33
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.12

allows per match

Mingəçevir
1.22
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.36

finishing

Mingəçevir+0.00on par
Qaradağ Lökbatan+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mingəçevir ↓

Qaradağ Lökbatan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mingəçevir or draw
68%
Mingəçevir or Qaradağ Lökbatan
73%
Draw or Qaradağ Lökbatan
59%

Winning margin

Mingəçevir wins by 2+
19%
Qaradağ Lökbatan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mingəçevir 1+ goals
74%
Mingəçevir 2+ goals
39%
Mingəçevir 3+ goals
15%
Qaradağ Lökbatan 1+ goals
69%
Qaradağ Lökbatan 2+ goals
33%
Qaradağ Lökbatan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mingəçevir (draw refunded)
56%
Qaradağ Lökbatan (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mingəçevir at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

Qaradağ Lökbatan away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mingəçevir attack 1.33 + Qaradağ Lökbatan defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Qaradağ Lökbatan attack 1.12 + Mingəçevir defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mingəçevir scores more
41%
level
27%
Qaradağ Lökbatan scores more
32%

Mingəçevir at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mingəçevir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
X. Basirov
27'
M. Tahirov
57'
E. Alizada
90+4'
K. Muradov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mingəçevir 2 – 2 Qaradağ Lökbatan

Mingəçevir and Qaradağ Lökbatan drew 2-2 in Birinci Dasta on May 22, 2024.

Goals: X. Basirov (11'), M. Tahirov (27'), E. Alizada (57'), K. Muradov (90+4').

The match was played at Yaşar Məmmədzadə adına şəhər stadionu in Mingəçevir.