Qaradağ Lökbatan 1–0 Imisli FK: Result & Stats

Qaradağ Lökbatan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Imisli FK

3/7/2024

Birinci Dasta · Round 17Lökbatan OIK stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Qaradağ Lökbatan45%

×Draw26%

Imisli FK29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qaradağ LökbatanExpected goals in this matchImisli FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.16

Qaradağ Lökbatan

1.50

Imisli FK

1.16

Qaradağ Lökbatan creates 29% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 42 away

1.39

creates per match

1.19

1.13

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Qaradağ Lökbatan

1.39

Imisli FK

1.19

allows per match

Qaradağ Lökbatan

1.13

Imisli FK

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qaradağ Lökbatan+0.00on par

Imisli FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qaradağ Lökbatan ↓

Imisli FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Qaradağ Lökbatan or draw

71%

Qaradağ Lökbatan or Imisli FK

74%

Draw or Imisli FK

55%

Winning margin

Qaradağ Lökbatan wins by 2+

22%

Imisli FK wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Qaradağ Lökbatan 1+ goals

78%

Qaradağ Lökbatan 2+ goals

44%

Qaradağ Lökbatan 3+ goals

19%

Imisli FK 1+ goals

69%

Imisli FK 2+ goals

32%

Imisli FK 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Qaradağ Lökbatan (draw refunded)

61%

Imisli FK (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qaradağ Lökbatan at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.13 · 76 matches

Imisli FK away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.60 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qaradağ Lökbatan attack 1.39 + Imisli FK defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Imisli FK attack 1.19 + Qaradağ Lökbatan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Qaradağ Lökbatan scores more

45%

level

26%

Imisli FK scores more

29%

Qaradağ Lökbatan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Qaradağ Lökbatan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff