Imisli FK 2–1 Qaradağ Lökbatan: Result & Stats

Imisli FK

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Qaradağ Lökbatan

11/27/2024

Birinci Dasta · Round 8Heydər Əliyev adına şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Imisli FK42%

×Draw27%

Qaradağ Lökbatan31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Imisli FKExpected goals in this matchQaradağ Lökbatan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.10

Imisli FK

1.33

Qaradağ Lökbatan

1.10

Imisli FK creates 21% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 76 away

1.29

creates per match

1.12

1.07

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Imisli FK

1.29

Qaradağ Lökbatan

1.12

allows per match

Imisli FK

1.07

Qaradağ Lökbatan

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Imisli FK+0.00on par

Qaradağ Lökbatan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imisli FK ↓

Qaradağ Lökbatan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Imisli FK or draw

69%

Imisli FK or Qaradağ Lökbatan

73%

Draw or Qaradağ Lökbatan

58%

Winning margin

Imisli FK wins by 2+

19%

Qaradağ Lökbatan wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Imisli FK 1+ goals

74%

Imisli FK 2+ goals

38%

Imisli FK 3+ goals

15%

Qaradağ Lökbatan 1+ goals

67%

Qaradağ Lökbatan 2+ goals

30%

Qaradağ Lökbatan 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Imisli FK (draw refunded)

58%

Qaradağ Lökbatan (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imisli FK at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.07 · 41 matches

Qaradağ Lökbatan away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imisli FK attack 1.29 + Qaradağ Lökbatan defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Qaradağ Lökbatan attack 1.12 + Imisli FK defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Imisli FK scores more

42%

level

27%

Qaradağ Lökbatan scores more

31%

Imisli FK at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Imisli FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff