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Qaradağ Lökbatan vs Difai Ağsu — Birinci Dasta 2019

Qaradağ Lökbatan
Qaradağ Lökbatan
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Difai Ağsu
Difai Ağsu
4/24/2025Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 23Lökbatan OIK stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Qaradağ Lökbatan50%
×Draw24%
Difai Ağsu26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.69
Difai Ağsu
1.14

Qaradağ Lökbatan creates 48% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 40 away

creates per match

Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.39
Difai Ağsu
1.15

allows per match

Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.13
Difai Ağsu
1.98

finishing

Qaradağ Lökbatan+0.00on par
Difai Ağsu+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qaradağ Lökbatan ↓

Difai Ağsu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Qaradağ Lökbatan or draw
74%
Qaradağ Lökbatan or Difai Ağsu
76%
Draw or Difai Ağsu
50%

Winning margin

Qaradağ Lökbatan wins by 2+
27%
Difai Ağsu wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Qaradağ Lökbatan 1+ goals
82%
Qaradağ Lökbatan 2+ goals
50%
Qaradağ Lökbatan 3+ goals
24%
Difai Ağsu 1+ goals
68%
Difai Ağsu 2+ goals
32%
Difai Ağsu 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Qaradağ Lökbatan (draw refunded)
66%
Difai Ağsu (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qaradağ Lökbatan at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.13 · 76 matches

Difai Ağsu away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.98 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qaradağ Lökbatan attack 1.39 + Difai Ağsu defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.69

Difai Ağsu attack 1.15 + Qaradağ Lökbatan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Qaradağ Lökbatan scores more
50%
level
24%
Difai Ağsu scores more
26%

Qaradağ Lökbatan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Qaradağ Lökbatan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Qaradağ Lökbatan vs Difai Ağsu

Qaradağ Lökbatan beat Difai Ağsu 3-1 in Birinci Dasta on April 24, 2025.

The match was played at Lökbatan OIK stadionu in Lökbatan.