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Difai Ağsu vs Qaradağ Lökbatan — Birinci Dasta 2019

Difai Ağsu
Difai Ağsu
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Qaradağ Lökbatan
Qaradağ Lökbatan
4/4/2024Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 20Şamaxı şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Difai Ağsu33%
×Draw25%
Qaradağ Lökbatan42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Difai Ağsu
1.30
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.49

Qaradağ Lökbatan creates 15% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 76 away

creates per match

Difai Ağsu
1.24
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.12

allows per match

Difai Ağsu
1.85
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.36

finishing

Difai Ağsu+0.00on par
Qaradağ Lökbatan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Difai Ağsu ↓

Qaradağ Lökbatan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Difai Ağsu or draw
58%
Difai Ağsu or Qaradağ Lökbatan
75%
Draw or Qaradağ Lökbatan
67%

Winning margin

Difai Ağsu wins by 2+
14%
Qaradağ Lökbatan wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Difai Ağsu 1+ goals
73%
Difai Ağsu 2+ goals
37%
Difai Ağsu 3+ goals
14%
Qaradağ Lökbatan 1+ goals
77%
Qaradağ Lökbatan 2+ goals
44%
Qaradağ Lökbatan 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Difai Ağsu (draw refunded)
44%
Qaradağ Lökbatan (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Difai Ağsu at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.85 · 41 matches

Qaradağ Lökbatan away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Difai Ağsu attack 1.24 + Qaradağ Lökbatan defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.30

Qaradağ Lökbatan attack 1.12 + Difai Ağsu defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Difai Ağsu scores more
33%
level
25%
Qaradağ Lökbatan scores more
42%

Qaradağ Lökbatan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Qaradağ Lökbatan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Birinci Dasta: Difai Ağsu 1–2 Qaradağ Lökbatan

Qaradağ Lökbatan beat Difai Ağsu 2-1 in Birinci Dasta on April 4, 2024.

The match was played at Şamaxı şəhər stadionu in Shamakhi.