Qarabag 3–0 Neftchi Baku: Result & Stats

Qarabag

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Neftchi Baku

4/19/2025

Premyer Liqa · Round 31Tofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Qarabag56%

×Draw23%

Neftchi Baku21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QarabagExpected goals in this matchNeftchi Baku

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.01

Qarabag

1.82

Neftchi Baku

1.01

Qarabag creates 80% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 108 away

2.55

creates per match

1.38

0.64

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Qarabag

2.55

Neftchi Baku

1.38

allows per match

Qarabag

0.64

Neftchi Baku

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qarabag+0.00on par

Neftchi Baku+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qarabag ↓

Neftchi Baku →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Qarabag or draw

79%

Qarabag or Neftchi Baku

77%

Draw or Neftchi Baku

44%

Winning margin

Qarabag wins by 2+

32%

Neftchi Baku wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Qarabag 1+ goals

84%

Qarabag 2+ goals

54%

Qarabag 3+ goals

27%

Neftchi Baku 1+ goals

64%

Neftchi Baku 2+ goals

27%

Neftchi Baku 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Qarabag (draw refunded)

73%

Neftchi Baku (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qarabag at home — creates 2.55, concedes 0.64 · 112 matches

Neftchi Baku away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.09 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qarabag attack 2.55 + Neftchi Baku defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.82

Neftchi Baku attack 1.38 + Qarabag defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Qarabag scores more

56%

level

23%

Neftchi Baku scores more

21%

Qarabag at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Qarabag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff