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Neftchi Baku vs Qarabag — Premyer Liqa 2019

Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Qarabag
Qarabag
2/16/2025Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 23Neftçi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Neftchi Baku29%
×Draw25%
Qarabag46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neftchi Baku
1.19
Qarabag
1.58

Qarabag creates 33% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 110 away

creates per match

Neftchi Baku
1.68
Qarabag
2.15

allows per match

Neftchi Baku
1.02
Qarabag
0.71

finishing

Neftchi Baku+0.00on par
Qarabag+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neftchi Baku ↓

Qarabag →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Neftchi Baku or draw
54%
Neftchi Baku or Qarabag
75%
Draw or Qarabag
71%

Winning margin

Neftchi Baku wins by 2+
12%
Qarabag wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Neftchi Baku 1+ goals
70%
Neftchi Baku 2+ goals
33%
Neftchi Baku 3+ goals
12%
Qarabag 1+ goals
79%
Qarabag 2+ goals
47%
Qarabag 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Neftchi Baku (draw refunded)
38%
Qarabag (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neftchi Baku at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.02 · 109 matches

Qarabag away — creates 2.15, concedes 0.71 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neftchi Baku attack 1.68 + Qarabag defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.19

Qarabag attack 2.15 + Neftchi Baku defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Neftchi Baku scores more
29%
level
25%
Qarabag scores more
46%

Qarabag at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Qarabag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premyer Liqa: Neftchi Baku 0–1 Qarabag

Qarabag beat Neftchi Baku 1-0 in Premyer Liqa on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at Neftçi Arena in Baku.