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Qarabag vs Araz — Premyer Liqa 2019

Qarabag
Qarabag
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Araz
Araz
5/11/2025Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 34Azərsun Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Qarabag64%
×Draw21%
Araz15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qarabag
1.98
Araz
0.82

Qarabag creates 141% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 52 away

creates per match

Qarabag
2.55
Araz
1.00

allows per match

Qarabag
0.64
Araz
1.42

finishing

Qarabag+0.00on par
Araz+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qarabag ↓

Araz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Qarabag or draw
85%
Qarabag or Araz
79%
Draw or Araz
36%

Winning margin

Qarabag wins by 2+
39%
Araz wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Qarabag 1+ goals
86%
Qarabag 2+ goals
59%
Qarabag 3+ goals
31%
Araz 1+ goals
56%
Araz 2+ goals
20%
Araz 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Qarabag (draw refunded)
81%
Araz (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qarabag at home — creates 2.55, concedes 0.64 · 112 matches

Araz away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.42 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qarabag attack 2.55 + Araz defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.98

Araz attack 1.00 + Qarabag defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Qarabag scores more
64%
level
21%
Araz scores more
15%

Qarabag at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Qarabag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Qarabag 2 – 0 Araz

Qarabag beat Araz 2-0 in Premyer Liqa on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Azərsun Arena in Baku.