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Araz vs Qarabag — Premyer Liqa 2019

Araz
Araz
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Qarabag
Qarabag
3/8/2025Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 26Liv Bona Dea Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Araz20%
×Draw24%
Qarabag55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Araz
0.90
Qarabag
1.67

Qarabag creates 86% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 110 away

creates per match

Araz
1.08
Qarabag
2.15

allows per match

Araz
1.19
Qarabag
0.71

finishing

Araz+0.00on par
Qarabag+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Araz ↓

Qarabag →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Araz or draw
45%
Araz or Qarabag
76%
Draw or Qarabag
80%

Winning margin

Araz wins by 2+
7%
Qarabag wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Araz 1+ goals
59%
Araz 2+ goals
23%
Araz 3+ goals
6%
Qarabag 1+ goals
81%
Qarabag 2+ goals
50%
Qarabag 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Araz (draw refunded)
27%
Qarabag (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Araz at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.19 · 53 matches

Qarabag away — creates 2.15, concedes 0.71 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Araz attack 1.08 + Qarabag defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.90

Qarabag attack 2.15 + Araz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Araz scores more
20%
level
24%
Qarabag scores more
55%

Qarabag at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Qarabag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premyer Liqa: Araz 1–3 Qarabag

Qarabag beat Araz 3-1 in Premyer Liqa on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Liv Bona Dea Arena in Baku.