Qabala U19 0–3 Olympiakos Piraeus U19

Qabala U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Olympiakos Piraeus U19

C. Darviras 87'

C. Kostoulas 64'

C. Mouzakitis 4' (pen)

11/8/2023

UEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundŞəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Qabala U1927%

×Draw24%

Olympiakos Piraeus U1949%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qabala U19Expected goals in this matchOlympiakos Piraeus U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.74

Qabala U19

1.23

Olympiakos Piraeus U19

1.74

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

0.57

creates per match

1.33

2.14

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Qabala U19

0.57

Olympiakos Piraeus U19

1.33

allows per match

Qabala U19

2.14

Olympiakos Piraeus U19

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qabala U19+0.00on par

Olympiakos Piraeus U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qabala U19 ↓

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Qabala U19 or draw

51%

Qabala U19 or Olympiakos Piraeus U19

76%

Draw or Olympiakos Piraeus U19

73%

Winning margin

Qabala U19 wins by 2+

11%

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Qabala U19 1+ goals

71%

Qabala U19 2+ goals

35%

Qabala U19 3+ goals

13%

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 1+ goals

82%

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 2+ goals

52%

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Qabala U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qabala U19 at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qabala U19 attack 0.57 + Olympiakos Piraeus U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.23

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 attack 1.33 + Qabala U19 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Qabala U19 scores more

27%

level

24%

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 scores more

49%

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Olympiakos Piraeus U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

C. MouzakitisPenalty

38'

I. Ramazanov

46'

R. Badalzade← E. Süleymanov

64'

C. Kostoulas

66'

İ. Budagov← O. Tahmazli

74'

C. Darviras← S. Pnevmonidis

77'

G. Ramazanov← K. Bakhishov

77'

R. Asadov← K. Mammadli

79'

A. Liatsikouras← A. Papakanellos

80'

R. Badalzade

87'

C. Darviras

89'

C. Darviras

90'

C. Bağırzadə← S. Ağalarov

90'

P. Plionis← C. Mouzakitis

90'

C. Ligdas← C. Kostoulas

90'

A. Dama← A. Koutsogoulas

Qabala

Olympiakos

1

4

19

21

3

8

⚽

▼

Mouzakiti

10

▼

Papakanel

7

▼

Koutsogou

11

▼

Pnevmonid

23

Bakoulas

9

⚽

▼

94

3

4

13

18

10

▼

Tahmazli

17

Əhmədov

8

▼

Mammadli

11

▼

Bakhishov

9

▼

Ağalarov

7

▼

Süleymano

Manager: F. Khalilov

46'▲R. Badalzade←▼E. Süleymanov

66'▲İ. Budagov←▼O. Tahmazli

77'▲G. Ramazanov←▼K. Bakhishov

77'▲R. Asadov←▼K. Mammadli

90'▲C. Bağırzadə←▼S. Ağalarov

Qabala U19 substitutes

19Badalzade14Budagov5Ramazanov6Asadov15Bağırzadə2Mustafayev16Muradov

Manager: S. Silaidopoulos

74'▲C. Darviras←▼S. Pnevmonidis

79'▲A. Liatsikouras←▼A. Papakanellos

90'▲P. Plionis←▼C. Mouzakitis

90'▲C. Ligdas←▼C. Kostoulas

90'▲A. Dama←▼A. Koutsogoulas

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 substitutes

14Darviras6Liatsikouras17Plionis18Ligdas24Dama15Exarchos22Tanoulis