Olympiakos Piraeus U19 4–0 Qabala U19

Olympiakos Piraeus U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Qabala U19

A. Koutsogoulas 90+3' (pen)

C. Mouzakitis 72' (pen), 15'

C. Gatopoulos 56'

11/29/2023

UEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundStadio Georgios Karaiskáki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Olympiakos Piraeus U1965%

×Draw20%

Qabala U1916%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympiakos Piraeus U19Expected goals in this matchQabala U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

0.96

Olympiakos Piraeus U19

2.16

Qabala U19

0.96

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 creates 125% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

1.89

creates per match

0.71

1.22

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Olympiakos Piraeus U19

1.89

Qabala U19

0.71

allows per match

Olympiakos Piraeus U19

1.22

Qabala U19

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympiakos Piraeus U19+0.00on par

Qabala U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 ↓

Qabala U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 or draw

84%

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 or Qabala U19

80%

Draw or Qabala U19

35%

Winning margin

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 wins by 2+

41%

Qabala U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 1+ goals

88%

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 2+ goals

63%

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 3+ goals

36%

Qabala U19 1+ goals

62%

Qabala U19 2+ goals

25%

Qabala U19 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 (draw refunded)

80%

Qabala U19 (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Qabala U19 away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 attack 1.89 + Qabala U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.16

Qabala U19 attack 0.71 + Olympiakos Piraeus U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 scores more

65%

level

20%

Qabala U19 scores more

16%

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Olympiakos Piraeus U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

A. Papakanellos

15'

C. Mouzakitis

46'

J. Huseynov← K. Mammadli

54'

F. Ahmadov

56'

C. Gatopoulos

57'

K. Bakhishov

59'

C. Darviras← I. Koutsidis

59'

P. Plionis← A. Papakanellos

60'

R. Asadov← İ. Budagov

68'

A. Dama← C. Gatopoulos

69'

G. Rolakis← N. Alafakis

71'

N. Rashidov

72'

C. MouzakitisPenalty

73'

G. Ramazanov← R. Qafarov

74'

E. Mustafayev← K. Bakhishov

76'

H. Hüşənov← M. Muradov

77'

C. Ligdas← S. Pnevmonidis

83'

I. Ramazanov

90+2'

I. Ramazanov

90+2'

I. Ramazanov

90+3'

A. KoutsogoulasPenalty

Olympiakos

Qabala

16

▼

Muradov

3

Ramazanov

4

Rəşidov

13

▼

18

6

17

14

▼

Budagov

7

▼

Mammadli

11

▼

Bakhishov

9

Ağalarov

1

Sina

4

▼

Koutsidis

19

Kostoulas

21

Prekates

3

▼

Alafakis

8

⚽2

Mouzakiti

10

▼

Papakanel

6

Liatsikou

7

⚽

Koutsogou

11

▼

Pnevmonid

27

⚽

▼

Gatopoulo

Manager: S. Silaidopoulos

59'▲C. Darviras←▼I. Koutsidis

59'▲P. Plionis←▼A. Papakanellos

68'▲A. Dama←▼C. Gatopoulos

69'▲G. Rolakis←▼N. Alafakis

77'▲C. Ligdas←▼S. Pnevmonidis

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 substitutes

14Darviras17Plionis24Dama26Rolakis18Ligdas15Exarchos22Tanoulis

Manager: F. Khalilov

46'▲J. Huseynov←▼K. Mammadli

60'▲R. Asadov←▼İ. Budagov

73'▲G. Ramazanov←▼R. Qafarov

74'▲E. Mustafayev←▼K. Bakhishov

76'▲H. Hüşənov←▼M. Muradov

Qabala U19 substitutes

15Huseynov8Asadov5Ramazanov2Mustafayev94Hüşənov

Match Recap: Olympiakos Piraeus U19 vs Qabala U19

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 beat Qabala U19 4-0 in UEFA Youth League on November 29, 2023.

Goals: C. Mouzakitis (15', 72' pen), C. Gatopoulos (56'), A. Koutsogoulas (90+3' pen).

The match was played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Piraeus.

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 vs Qabala U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Olympiakos Piraeus U19 vs Qabala U19