Qabala U19 1–3 Hertha BSC U19: Result & Stats

Qabala U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Hertha BSC U19

A. Sadikhov 88'

R. Werthmüller 85'

J. Ngankam 71'

M. Kiprit 65'

11/7/2018

UEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundŞəhər stadionu (Qəbələ)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Qabala U1923%

×Draw21%

Hertha BSC U1955%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qabala U19Expected goals in this matchHertha BSC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

2.07

Qabala U19

1.28

Hertha BSC U19

2.07

Hertha BSC U19 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

0.57

creates per match

2.00

2.14

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Qabala U19

0.57

Hertha BSC U19

2.00

allows per match

Qabala U19

2.14

Hertha BSC U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qabala U19+0.00on par

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qabala U19 ↓

Hertha BSC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Qabala U19 or draw

45%

Qabala U19 or Hertha BSC U19

79%

Draw or Hertha BSC U19

77%

Winning margin

Qabala U19 wins by 2+

10%

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Qabala U19 1+ goals

72%

Qabala U19 2+ goals

37%

Qabala U19 3+ goals

14%

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals

87%

Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals

61%

Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Qabala U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qabala U19 at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Hertha BSC U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qabala U19 attack 0.57 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.00 + Qabala U19 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Qabala U19 scores more

23%

level

21%

Hertha BSC U19 scores more

55%

Hertha BSC U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

J. Michelbrink← J. Albrecht

65'

M. Kiprit

66'

T. Isazade← V. Rzayev

71'

J. Ngankam

72'

R. Werthmüller← F. Krebs

78'

A. Mursalov← S. Qurbanov

79'

T. Gözüsirin← J. Weber

85'

R. Werthmüller

88'

N. Orujlu← M. Maharramov

88'

A. Sadikhov

89'

E. Tamim← F. Baak

90'

P. Krüger← M. Gurschke

Qabala

Hertha

1

Klatte

33

▼

Baak

18

▼

Gurschke

24

Kastrati

31

Ziemer

35

▼

Krebs

10

Ramić

19

▼

Albrecht

36

⚽

Kiprit

9

⚽

Ngankam

17

▼

12

6

2

3

16

▼

Rzayev

4

Masimov

7

⚽

Sadikhov

8

Ağazadə

15

Ingilabli

11

▼

Qurbanov

17

▼

Maharramo

Manager: E. İmamäliyev

66'▲T. Isazade←▼V. Rzayev

78'▲A. Mursalov←▼S. Qurbanov

88'▲N. Orujlu←▼M. Maharramov

Qabala U19 substitutes

10Isazade9Mursalov18Orujlu1Sultanov5Aghjabayov14Muradov13Aliyev

Manager: M. Hartmann

46'▲J. Michelbrink←▼J. Albrecht

72'▲R. Werthmüller←▼F. Krebs

79'▲T. Gözüsirin←▼J. Weber

89'▲E. Tamim←▼F. Baak

90'▲P. Krüger←▼M. Gurschke

Hertha BSC U19 substitutes

8Michelbrink14Werthmüller6Gözüsirin21Tamim16Krüger12Palmowski

UEFA Youth League: Qabala U19 1–3 Hertha BSC U19

Hertha BSC U19 beat Qabala U19 3-1 in UEFA Youth League on November 7, 2018.

Goals: M. Kiprit (65'), J. Ngankam (71'), R. Werthmüller (85'), A. Sadikhov (88').

The match was played at Şəhər stadionu (Qəbələ).

Qabala U19 vs Hertha BSC U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Qabala U19 1–3 Hertha BSC U19