Hertha BSC U19 1–0 Qabala U19: Result & Stats

Hertha BSC U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Qabala U19

M. Kiprit 24' (pen)

11/28/2018

UEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundAmateurstadion (Berlin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hertha BSC U1973%

×Draw18%

Qabala U198%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha BSC U19Expected goals in this matchQabala U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

0.52

Hertha BSC U19

2.05

Qabala U19

0.52

Hertha BSC U19 creates 294% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

1.67

creates per match

0.71

0.33

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Hertha BSC U19

1.67

Qabala U19

0.71

allows per match

Hertha BSC U19

0.33

Qabala U19

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par

Qabala U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC U19 ↓

Qabala U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hertha BSC U19 or draw

92%

Hertha BSC U19 or Qabala U19

82%

Draw or Qabala U19

27%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+

48%

Qabala U19 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals

87%

Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals

61%

Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals

33%

Qabala U19 1+ goals

41%

Qabala U19 2+ goals

10%

Qabala U19 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)

90%

Qabala U19 (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Qabala U19 away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC U19 attack 1.67 + Qabala U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.05

Qabala U19 attack 0.71 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Hertha BSC U19 scores more

73%

level

18%

Qabala U19 scores more

8%

Hertha BSC U19 at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

M. KipritPenalty

46'

R. Werthmüller← L. Naumann

46'

J. Albrecht← R. Königsdörffer

56'

V. Rzayev← M. Maharramov

64'

M. Ramić← D. Jastrzembski

73'

J. Michelbrink← J. Ngankam

84'

M. Gurschke← E. Tamim

87'

A. Mursalov← S. Qurbanov

87'

N. Orujlu← I. Ingilabli

90'

N. Aliyev← R. Nuruyev

90'

F. Iskandarov← A. Ağazadə

Hertha

Qabala

12

Zülfüqarl

6

Hacıyev

2

▼

3

4

7

8

▼

Ağazadə

15

▼

Ingilabli

11

▼

Qurbanov

10

Isazade

17

▼

12

37

24

15

▼

Naumann

31

Ziemer

21

▼

Tamim

35

Krebs

36

⚽

Kiprit

11

▼

Jastrzemb

9

▼

Ngankam

20

▼

Königsdör

Manager: M. Hartmann

46'▲R. Werthmüller←▼L. Naumann

46'▲J. Albrecht←▼R. Königsdörffer

64'▲M. Ramić←▼D. Jastrzembski

73'▲J. Michelbrink←▼J. Ngankam

84'▲M. Gurschke←▼E. Tamim

Hertha BSC U19 substitutes

14Werthmüller19Albrecht10Ramić8Michelbrink18Gurschke1Klatte16Krüger

Manager: E. İmamäliyev

56'▲V. Rzayev←▼M. Maharramov

87'▲A. Mursalov←▼S. Qurbanov

87'▲N. Orujlu←▼I. Ingilabli

90'▲N. Aliyev←▼R. Nuruyev

90'▲F. Iskandarov←▼A. Ağazadə

Qabala U19 substitutes

16Rzayev9Mursalov18Orujlu13Aliyev14Iskandarov1Sultanov5Aghjabayov