Qabala U19 1–2 Hajduk Split U19: Result & Stats

Qabala U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Hajduk Split U19

S. Shahniyarov 52'

J. Vrcić 88'

L. Vušković 68'

10/4/2022

UEFA Youth League · 1st RoundŞəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Qabala U1919%

×Draw22%

Hajduk Split U1958%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qabala U19Expected goals in this matchHajduk Split U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.87

Qabala U19

0.98

Hajduk Split U19

1.87

Hajduk Split U19 creates 91% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

0.57

creates per match

1.60

2.14

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Qabala U19

0.57

Hajduk Split U19

1.60

allows per match

Qabala U19

2.14

Hajduk Split U19

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qabala U19+0.00on par

Hajduk Split U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qabala U19 ↓

Hajduk Split U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Qabala U19 or draw

42%

Qabala U19 or Hajduk Split U19

78%

Draw or Hajduk Split U19

81%

Winning margin

Qabala U19 wins by 2+

7%

Hajduk Split U19 wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Qabala U19 1+ goals

62%

Qabala U19 2+ goals

26%

Qabala U19 3+ goals

8%

Hajduk Split U19 1+ goals

85%

Hajduk Split U19 2+ goals

56%

Hajduk Split U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Qabala U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Hajduk Split U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qabala U19 at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Hajduk Split U19 away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qabala U19 attack 0.57 + Hajduk Split U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.98

Hajduk Split U19 attack 1.60 + Qabala U19 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Qabala U19 scores more

19%

level

22%

Hajduk Split U19 scores more

58%

Hajduk Split U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Hajduk Split U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

K. Nazor← B. Jemo

52'

S. Shahniyarov

65'

A. Klarić-Kukuz← M. Čalušić

68'

L. Vušković

77'

R. Badalzade← R. Gafarov

83'

V. Semiga

87'

87'

87'

88'

90+2'

K. Mammadli← K. Bakhishov

90+2'

T. Arković← L. Vušković

90'

N. Duić← R. Brajković

90'

L. Lončar← V. Šemiga

Qabala

Hajduk

33

4

14

2

5

⚽

▼

Vušković

8

Capan

6

▼

Šemiga

11

▼

Brajković

30

▼

Čalušić

10

⚽

Vrcić

7

▼

12

4

5

13

▼

Gafarov

10

Khudaverd

14

⚽

17

8

18

15

▼

Bakhishov

9

Aghalarov

Manager: Z. Hajiyev

77'▲R. Badalzade←▼R. Gafarov

90+2'▲K. Mammadli←▼K. Bakhishov

Qabala U19 substitutes

2Badalzade3Mammadli6Ahmadov7Hashimli16Hüseynli11Ismayilov1Tərlanov

Manager: M. Budimir

46'▲K. Nazor←▼B. Jemo

65'▲A. Klarić-Kukuz←▼M. Čalušić

90+2'▲T. Arković←▼L. Vušković

90'▲N. Duić←▼R. Brajković

90'▲L. Lončar←▼V. Šemiga

Hajduk Split U19 substitutes

28Nazor20Klarić-Kukuz24Arković26Duić27Lončar31Hrvojević99Fesyuk