Hajduk Split U19 3–0 Qabala U19: Result & Stats

Hajduk Split U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Qabala U19

K. Nazor 83'

M. Čalušić 51'

J. Vrcić 24' (pen)

9/12/2022

UEFA Youth League · 1st RoundStadion Poljud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hajduk Split U1978%

×Draw15%

Qabala U198%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hajduk Split U19Expected goals in this matchQabala U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

0.64

Hajduk Split U19

2.50

Qabala U19

0.64

Hajduk Split U19 creates 291% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

2.57

creates per match

0.71

0.57

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Hajduk Split U19

2.57

Qabala U19

0.71

allows per match

Hajduk Split U19

0.57

Qabala U19

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hajduk Split U19+0.00on par

Qabala U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajduk Split U19 ↓

Qabala U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Hajduk Split U19 or draw

92%

Hajduk Split U19 or Qabala U19

85%

Draw or Qabala U19

22%

Winning margin

Hajduk Split U19 wins by 2+

55%

Qabala U19 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Hajduk Split U19 1+ goals

92%

Hajduk Split U19 2+ goals

71%

Hajduk Split U19 3+ goals

45%

Qabala U19 1+ goals

47%

Qabala U19 2+ goals

14%

Qabala U19 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Hajduk Split U19 (draw refunded)

91%

Qabala U19 (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajduk Split U19 at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Qabala U19 away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajduk Split U19 attack 2.57 + Qabala U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.50

Qabala U19 attack 0.71 + Hajduk Split U19 defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Hajduk Split U19 scores more

78%

level

15%

Qabala U19 scores more

8%

Hajduk Split U19 at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Hajduk Split U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

S. Aghalarov

24'

J. VrcićPenalty

38'

E. Ahmadov← F. Kalantarov

46'

M. Čalušić← I. Dominić

46'

F. Ahmadov← K. Khudaverdiyev

50'

N. Dolonga

51'

M. Čalušić

55'

K. Bakhishov← A. Hashimli

57'

M. Hrvojevic← N. Đolonga

64'

B. Jemo← M. Antunović

64'

K. Nazor← R. Brajković

74'

S. Hrgovic

81'

N. Duić← J. Vrcić

82'

E. Hüseynli← S. Aghalarov

82'

R. Badalzade← E. Ahmadov

83'

K. Nazor

86'

R. Badalzade

Hajduk

Qabala

12

3

2

5

13

17

▼

Khudaverd

14

Shahniyar

10

▼

Kalantaro

18

Baxşalı

9

▼

Aghalarov

7

▼

33

4

14

3

▼

Dominić

2

▼

5

8

6

11

▼

Brajković

9

▼

Antunović

10

⚽

▼

Vrcić

Manager: M. Budimir

46'▲M. Čalušić←▼I. Dominić

57'▲M. Hrvojevic←▼N. Đolonga

64'▲B. Jemo←▼M. Antunović

64'▲K. Nazor←▼R. Brajković

81'▲N. Duić←▼J. Vrcić

Hajduk Split U19 substitutes

30Čalušić31Hrvojevic7Jemo28Nazor26Duić29Pavić99Fesyuk

Manager: Z. Hajiyev

38'▲E. Ahmadov←▼F. Kalantarov

46'▲F. Ahmadov←▼K. Khudaverdiyev

55'▲K. Bakhishov←▼A. Hashimli

82'▲E. Hüseynli←▼S. Aghalarov

82'▲R. Badalzade←▼E. Ahmadov

Qabala U19 substitutes

16Ahmadov6Ahmadov15Bakhishov8Hüseynli4Badalzade11Ismayilov1Muradov

UEFA Youth League: Hajduk Split U19 3–0 Qabala U19

Hajduk Split U19 beat Qabala U19 3-0 in UEFA Youth League on September 12, 2022.

Goals: J. Vrcić (24' pen), M. Čalušić (51'), K. Nazor (83').

The match was played at Stadion Poljud in Split.

Hajduk Split U19 vs Qabala U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Hajduk Split U19 3–0 Qabala U19