Qabala U19 0–4 AZ U19: Result & Stats

Qabala U19

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

AZ U19

R. Daal 78'

N. Koster 59', 15'

L. Schouten 54'

9/29/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group StageŞəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Qabala U1914%

×Draw18%

AZ U1968%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qabala U19Expected goals in this matchAZ U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

2.32

Qabala U19

0.94

AZ U19

2.32

AZ U19 creates 147% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

0.57

creates per match

2.50

2.14

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Qabala U19

0.57

AZ U19

2.50

allows per match

Qabala U19

2.14

AZ U19

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qabala U19+0.00on par

AZ U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qabala U19 ↓

AZ U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Qabala U19 or draw

32%

Qabala U19 or AZ U19

82%

Draw or AZ U19

86%

Winning margin

Qabala U19 wins by 2+

4%

AZ U19 wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Qabala U19 1+ goals

61%

Qabala U19 2+ goals

24%

Qabala U19 3+ goals

7%

AZ U19 1+ goals

90%

AZ U19 2+ goals

67%

AZ U19 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Qabala U19 (draw refunded)

17%

AZ U19 (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qabala U19 at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

AZ U19 away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qabala U19 attack 0.57 + AZ U19 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.94

AZ U19 attack 2.50 + Qabala U19 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Qabala U19 scores more

14%

level

18%

AZ U19 scores more

68%

AZ U19 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "AZ U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

N. Koster

21'

L. Schouten

25'

C. Akande← E. Süleymanov

34'

38'

54'

59'

62'

F. Kalantarov← R. Rustamli

62'

T. Garayev← G. Asadov

62'

D.Kwakman← L. Schouten

65'

S. Damadayev

76'

S. Aghalarov← A. Nasibov

76'

Ü. Mədətov← E. Səfərov

76'

S. Dekkers← M. Engel

78'

R. Daal

82'

S. Dekkers

88'

T. Kerssens← N. Koster

90+4'

M. van Brederode

Qabala

AZ

1

Westervel

12

Aken

32

▼

5

3

10

8

25

⚽

▼

Schouten

11

Brederode

18

⚽

Daal

17

⚽2

▼

1

15

3

5

2

9

▼

Nasibov

8

▼

Rustamli

10

▼

Asadov

16

▼

Süleymano

7

▼

Səfərov

18

Baxşalı

Manager: F. Khalilov

25'▲C. Akande←▼E. Süleymanov

62'▲F. Kalantarov←▼R. Rustamli

62'▲T. Garayev←▼G. Asadov

76'▲S. Aghalarov←▼A. Nasibov

76'▲Ü. Mədətov←▼E. Səfərov

Qabala U19 substitutes

14Akande17Kalantarov11Garayev13Aghalarov6Mədətov12Nazarli4Rashidov

Manager: J. Sierksma

62'▲D.Kwakman←▼L. Schouten

76'▲S. Dekkers←▼M. Engel

88'▲T. Kerssens←▼N. Koster

AZ U19 substitutes

14D.Kwakman2Dekkers19Kerssens20Mastoras21Stam22Owusu-Oduro23Postma