AZ U19 7–0 Qabala U19: Result & Stats

AZ U19

FT

7 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Qabala U19

M. Meerdink 72'

T. Kerssens 63'

J. van Aken 60'

Ü. Mədətov 43' (OG)

N. Koster 36', 4'

F. de Jong 17'

10/19/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group StageAFAS Trainingscomplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

AZ U1988%

×Draw9%

Qabala U193%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AZ U19Expected goals in this matchQabala U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.25

0.51

AZ U19

3.25

Qabala U19

0.51

AZ U19 creates 537% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

4.08

creates per match

0.71

0.31

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

AZ U19

4.08

Qabala U19

0.71

allows per match

AZ U19

0.31

Qabala U19

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AZ U19+0.00on par

Qabala U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AZ U19 ↓

Qabala U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–011%

4–16%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (14%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

AZ U19 or draw

97%

AZ U19 or Qabala U19

91%

Draw or Qabala U19

12%

Winning margin

AZ U19 wins by 2+

72%

Qabala U19 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

AZ U19 1+ goals

96%

AZ U19 2+ goals

83%

AZ U19 3+ goals

61%

Qabala U19 1+ goals

40%

Qabala U19 2+ goals

9%

Qabala U19 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

AZ U19 (draw refunded)

96%

Qabala U19 (draw refunded)

4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AZ U19 at home — creates 4.08, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

Qabala U19 away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AZ U19 attack 4.08 + Qabala U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 3.25

Qabala U19 attack 0.71 + AZ U19 defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

AZ U19 scores more

88%

level

9%

Qabala U19 scores more

3%

AZ U19 at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "AZ U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

N. Koster

17'

F. de Jong

36'

N. Koster

43'

Ü. MədətovOwn goal

46'

T. Kerssens← F. de Jong

46'

L. Postma← M. Dekker

46'

N. Rashidov← S. Damadayev

46'

T. Garayev← K. Samadov

46'

S. Aghalarov← R. Maharramov

48'

T. Garayev

60'

J. van Aken

61'

D.Kwakman← N. Twisk

61'

M. Meerdink← N. Koster

63'

T. Kerssens

64'

F. Ahmadov← G. Asadov

65'

H. Mursalov

67'

M. Engel

72'

M. Meerdink

76'

E. Mastoras← L. Schouten

76'

I. Mamiyev← Ü. Mədətov

AZ

Qabala

1

Hasanli

6

🥅

▼

Mədətov

15

Mürsəlov

3

Ramazanov

5

▼

Samadov

2

▼

Damadayev

9

Nasibov

10

▼

Maharramo

8

Rustamli

7

▼

Asadov

18

Baxşalı

1

Westervel

12

⚽

Aken

32

Engel

5

▼

Dekker

3

Goes

10

⚽

▼

Jong

8

▼

Twisk

25

▼

Schouten

11

Brederode

18

Daal

17

⚽2

▼

Koster

Manager: J. Sierksma

46'▲T. Kerssens←▼F. de Jong

46'▲L. Postma←▼M. Dekker

61'▲D.Kwakman←▼N. Twisk

61'▲M. Meerdink←▼N. Koster

76'▲E. Mastoras←▼L. Schouten

AZ U19 substitutes

19Kerssens23Postma14D.Kwakman37Meerdink20Mastoras2Dekkers16Deen

Manager: F. Khalilov

46'▲N. Rashidov←▼S. Damadayev

46'▲T. Garayev←▼K. Samadov

46'▲S. Aghalarov←▼R. Maharramov

64'▲F. Ahmadov←▼G. Asadov

76'▲I. Mamiyev←▼Ü. Mədətov

Qabala U19 substitutes

4Rashidov11Garayev16Aghalarov14Ahmadov17Mamiyev12Nazarli13Kalantarov

Match Recap: AZ U19 vs Qabala U19

AZ U19 beat Qabala U19 7-0 in UEFA Youth League on October 19, 2021.

Goals: N. Koster (4', 36'), F. de Jong (17'), Ü. Mədətov (43' o.g.), J. van Aken (60'), T. Kerssens (63'), M. Meerdink (72').

The match was played at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Wijdewormer.

AZ U19 vs Qabala U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: AZ U19 vs Qabala U19