Qabala U19 0–1 APOEL U19: Result & Stats

Qabala U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

APOEL U19

I. Hadjiyiannis 55'

10/24/2019

UEFA Youth League · 1st RoundŞəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Qabala U1938%

×Draw27%

APOEL U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qabala U19Expected goals in this matchAPOEL U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.24

Qabala U19

1.28

APOEL U19

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

0.57

creates per match

0.33

2.14

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Qabala U19

0.57

APOEL U19

0.33

allows per match

Qabala U19

2.14

APOEL U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qabala U19+0.00on par

APOEL U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qabala U19 ↓

APOEL U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Qabala U19 or draw

64%

Qabala U19 or APOEL U19

73%

Draw or APOEL U19

62%

Winning margin

Qabala U19 wins by 2+

17%

APOEL U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Qabala U19 1+ goals

72%

Qabala U19 2+ goals

37%

Qabala U19 3+ goals

14%

APOEL U19 1+ goals

71%

APOEL U19 2+ goals

35%

APOEL U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Qabala U19 (draw refunded)

51%

APOEL U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qabala U19 at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

APOEL U19 away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qabala U19 attack 0.57 + APOEL U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

APOEL U19 attack 0.33 + Qabala U19 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Qabala U19 scores more

38%

level

27%

APOEL U19 scores more

36%

Qabala U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Qabala U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

R. Ahmadov← N. Aliyev

55'

I. Hadjiyiannis

58'

R. Maharramov← S. Məhərrəmli

68'

N. Demetriou← P. Orfanidis

79'

C. Mirallais← G. Theodosiou

82'

A. Nasibov← R. Nuruyev

84'

N. Pochouzouris← I. Hadjiyiannis

84'

N. Neokleous← M. Kazakeos

90+1'

E. Safarov← N. Orujlu

Qabala

APOEL

1

Theodouli

4

▼

5

3

11

25

8

17

21

▼

Theodosio

19

▼

Orfanidis

9

⚽

▼

Hadjiyian

1

Nadirov

2

▼

Nuruyev

14

Muradov

8

Rzayev

7

▼

Orujlu

13

▼

Aliyev

5

İnqilablı

10

▼

4

17

9

Manager: F. Khalilov

46'▲R. Ahmadov←▼N. Aliyev

58'▲R. Maharramov←▼S. Məhərrəmli

82'▲A. Nasibov←▼R. Nuruyev

90+1'▲E. Safarov←▼N. Orujlu

Qabala U19 substitutes

11Ahmadov6Maharramov16Nasibov18Safarov12Mammadli15Shikhamirov3Mursalov

Manager: E. Samios

68'▲N. Demetriou←▼P. Orfanidis

79'▲C. Mirallais←▼G. Theodosiou

84'▲N. Pochouzouris←▼I. Hadjiyiannis

84'▲N. Neokleous←▼M. Kazakeos

APOEL U19 substitutes

10Demetriou7Mirallais15Pochouzouris20Neokleous2Pitsillides6Dimitriou18Karapatakis