APOEL U19 1–1 Qabala U19: Result & Stats

APOEL U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Qabala U19

S. Gavriel 48'

G. Satsias 9' (OG)

10/2/2019

UEFA Youth League · 1st RoundMakareio Stadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

APOEL U1942%

×Draw25%

Qabala U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

APOEL U19Expected goals in this matchQabala U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.35

APOEL U19

1.55

Qabala U19

1.35

APOEL U19 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

0.67

creates per match

0.71

2.00

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

APOEL U19

0.67

Qabala U19

0.71

allows per match

APOEL U19

2.00

Qabala U19

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

APOEL U19+0.00on par

Qabala U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APOEL U19 ↓

Qabala U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

APOEL U19 or draw

67%

APOEL U19 or Qabala U19

75%

Draw or Qabala U19

58%

Winning margin

APOEL U19 wins by 2+

21%

Qabala U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

APOEL U19 1+ goals

79%

APOEL U19 2+ goals

46%

APOEL U19 3+ goals

20%

Qabala U19 1+ goals

74%

Qabala U19 2+ goals

39%

Qabala U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

APOEL U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Qabala U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APOEL U19 at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Qabala U19 away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APOEL U19 attack 0.67 + Qabala U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.55

Qabala U19 attack 0.71 + APOEL U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

APOEL U19 scores more

42%

level

25%

Qabala U19 scores more

33%

APOEL U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "APOEL U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

G. SatsiasOwn goal

18'

N. Aliyev← R. Ahmadov

46'

P. Orfanidis← N. Demetriou

48'

S. Gavriel

59'

R. Maharramov← M. Maharramov

66'

A. Dimitriou← S. Gavriel

69'

N. Pochouzouris← L. Kalogirou

79'

N. Shikhamirov← R. Nuruyev

80'

E. Safarov← N. Orujlu

86'

A. Ioannou← G. Satsias

86'

N. Neokleous← I. Hadjiyiannis

APOEL

Qabala

1

Nadirov

2

▼

Nuruyev

14

Muradov

8

Rzayev

7

▼

Orujlu

4

Məsimov

3

▼

Ahmadov

5

İnqilablı

10

İsazadə

17

▼

9

1

2

4

3

11

⚽

▼

Gavriel

25

▼

Kalogirou

8

🥅

▼

Satsias

10

▼

Demetriou

17

Hadjipana

21

Theodosio

9

▼

Hadjiyian

Manager: E. Samios

46'▲P. Orfanidis←▼N. Demetriou

66'▲A. Dimitriou←▼S. Gavriel

69'▲N. Pochouzouris←▼L. Kalogirou

86'▲A. Ioannou←▼G. Satsias

86'▲N. Neokleous←▼I. Hadjiyiannis

APOEL U19 substitutes

19Orfanidis6Dimitriou15Pochouzouris12Ioannou20Neokleous5Papathanasiou18Karapatakis

Manager: F. Khalilov

18'▲N. Aliyev←▼R. Ahmadov

59'▲R. Maharramov←▼M. Maharramov

79'▲N. Shikhamirov←▼R. Nuruyev

80'▲E. Safarov←▼N. Orujlu

Qabala U19 substitutes

13Aliyev16Maharramov15Shikhamirov18Safarov12Mammadli6Iskandarov11Məhərrəmli

UEFA Youth League: APOEL U19 1–1 Qabala U19

APOEL U19 and Qabala U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA Youth League on October 2, 2019.

Goals: G. Satsias (9' o.g.), S. Gavriel (48').

The match was played at Makareio Stadio in Lefkosía.

APOEL U19 vs Qabala U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: APOEL U19 1–1 Qabala U19