Pyunik Yerevan 2–0 Noravank: Result & Stats

Pyunik Yerevan

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Noravank

10/27/2021

Premier League · Round 11Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pyunik Yerevan63%

×Draw22%

Noravank16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pyunik YerevanExpected goals in this matchNoravank

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.83

Pyunik Yerevan

1.92

Noravank

0.83

Pyunik Yerevan creates 131% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 17 away

1.77

creates per match

0.71

0.96

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Pyunik Yerevan

1.77

Noravank

0.71

allows per match

Pyunik Yerevan

0.96

Noravank

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par

Noravank+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyunik Yerevan ↓

Noravank →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Pyunik Yerevan or draw

84%

Pyunik Yerevan or Noravank

78%

Draw or Noravank

37%

Winning margin

Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+

38%

Noravank wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals

85%

Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals

57%

Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals

30%

Noravank 1+ goals

56%

Noravank 2+ goals

20%

Noravank 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)

80%

Noravank (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyunik Yerevan at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.96 · 104 matches

Noravank away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyunik Yerevan attack 1.77 + Noravank defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.92

Noravank attack 0.71 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Pyunik Yerevan scores more

63%

level

22%

Noravank scores more

16%

Pyunik Yerevan at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Pyunik Yerevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff