Noravank 2–1 Pyunik Yerevan: Result & Stats

Noravank

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Pyunik Yerevan

8/6/2021

Premier League · Round 2Charentsavan City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Noravank28%

×Draw26%

Pyunik Yerevan46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NoravankExpected goals in this matchPyunik Yerevan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.52

Noravank

1.13

Pyunik Yerevan

1.52

Pyunik Yerevan creates 35% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 107 away

1.41

creates per match

1.75

1.29

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Noravank

1.41

Pyunik Yerevan

1.75

allows per match

Noravank

1.29

Pyunik Yerevan

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Noravank+0.00on par

Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noravank ↓

Pyunik Yerevan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Noravank or draw

54%

Noravank or Pyunik Yerevan

74%

Draw or Pyunik Yerevan

72%

Winning margin

Noravank wins by 2+

11%

Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Noravank 1+ goals

68%

Noravank 2+ goals

31%

Noravank 3+ goals

11%

Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals

78%

Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals

45%

Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Noravank (draw refunded)

38%

Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noravank at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Pyunik Yerevan away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.85 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noravank attack 1.41 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.13

Pyunik Yerevan attack 1.75 + Noravank defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Noravank scores more

28%

level

26%

Pyunik Yerevan scores more

46%

Pyunik Yerevan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pyunik Yerevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff