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Pyunik Yerevan vs BKMA — Premier League 2019

Pyunik Yerevan
Pyunik Yerevan
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
BKMA
BKMA
5/4/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Kotaik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Pyunik Yerevan56%
×Draw24%
BKMA21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyunik Yerevan
1.75
BKMA
0.97

Pyunik Yerevan creates 80% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 81 away

creates per match

Pyunik Yerevan
1.77
BKMA
0.98

allows per match

Pyunik Yerevan
0.96
BKMA
1.73

finishing

Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par
BKMA+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyunik Yerevan ↓

BKMA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Pyunik Yerevan or draw
79%
Pyunik Yerevan or BKMA
76%
Draw or BKMA
44%

Winning margin

Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+
31%
BKMA wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals
83%
Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals
52%
Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals
25%
BKMA 1+ goals
62%
BKMA 2+ goals
25%
BKMA 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)
73%
BKMA (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyunik Yerevan at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.96 · 104 matches

BKMA away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.73 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyunik Yerevan attack 1.77 + BKMA defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.75

BKMA attack 0.98 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Pyunik Yerevan scores more
56%
level
24%
BKMA scores more
21%

Pyunik Yerevan at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Pyunik Yerevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pyunik Yerevan vs BKMA

BKMA beat Pyunik Yerevan 2-1 in Premier League on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Kotaik Stadium in Abovian.