BKMA 1–2 Pyunik Yerevan: Result & Stats

BKMA

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Pyunik Yerevan

11/2/2025

Premier League · Round 12Football Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

BKMA21%

×Draw24%

Pyunik Yerevan55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BKMAExpected goals in this matchPyunik Yerevan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.73

BKMA

0.97

Pyunik Yerevan

1.73

Pyunik Yerevan creates 78% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 107 away

1.09

creates per match

1.75

1.70

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

BKMA

1.09

Pyunik Yerevan

1.75

allows per match

BKMA

1.70

Pyunik Yerevan

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BKMA+0.00on par

Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BKMA ↓

Pyunik Yerevan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

BKMA or draw

45%

BKMA or Pyunik Yerevan

76%

Draw or Pyunik Yerevan

79%

Winning margin

BKMA wins by 2+

7%

Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

BKMA 1+ goals

62%

BKMA 2+ goals

25%

BKMA 3+ goals

7%

Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals

82%

Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals

52%

Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

BKMA (draw refunded)

28%

Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BKMA at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.70 · 81 matches

Pyunik Yerevan away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.85 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BKMA attack 1.09 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.97

Pyunik Yerevan attack 1.75 + BKMA defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

BKMA scores more

21%

level

24%

Pyunik Yerevan scores more

55%

Pyunik Yerevan at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Pyunik Yerevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff