Pyunik II 0–2 Noravank: Result & Stats

Pyunik II

FT

0 – 2

Noravank

12/5/2020

First League · Round 16Pyunik Training Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Pyunik II36%

×Draw23%

Noravank41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pyunik IIExpected goals in this matchNoravank

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.77

Pyunik II

1.66

Noravank

1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 14 away

1.82

creates per match

1.71

1.82

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Pyunik II

1.82

Noravank

1.71

allows per match

Pyunik II

1.82

Noravank

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pyunik II+0.00on par

Noravank+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyunik II ↓

Noravank →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Pyunik II or draw

59%

Pyunik II or Noravank

77%

Draw or Noravank

64%

Winning margin

Pyunik II wins by 2+

18%

Noravank wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Pyunik II 1+ goals

81%

Pyunik II 2+ goals

49%

Pyunik II 3+ goals

23%

Noravank 1+ goals

83%

Noravank 2+ goals

53%

Noravank 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Pyunik II (draw refunded)

47%

Noravank (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyunik II at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.82 · 99 matches

Noravank away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyunik II attack 1.82 + Noravank defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.66

Noravank attack 1.71 + Pyunik II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pyunik II scores more

36%

level

23%

Noravank scores more

41%

Noravank at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Noravank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff