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Noravank vs Pyunik II — First League 2019

Noravank
Noravank
CANC
08:00
Pyunik II
Pyunik II
5/3/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 27Charentsavan City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Noravank54%
×Draw22%
Pyunik II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noravank
1.90
Pyunik II
1.16

Noravank creates 64% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 98 away

creates per match

Noravank
1.64
Pyunik II
1.46

allows per match

Noravank
0.86
Pyunik II
2.16

finishing

Noravank+0.00on par
Pyunik II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noravank ↓

Pyunik II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Noravank or draw
77%
Noravank or Pyunik II
78%
Draw or Pyunik II
46%

Winning margin

Noravank wins by 2+
31%
Pyunik II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Noravank 1+ goals
85%
Noravank 2+ goals
56%
Noravank 3+ goals
29%
Pyunik II 1+ goals
69%
Pyunik II 2+ goals
32%
Pyunik II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Noravank (draw refunded)
70%
Pyunik II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noravank at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Pyunik II away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noravank attack 1.64 + Pyunik II defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.90

Pyunik II attack 1.46 + Noravank defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Noravank scores more
54%
level
22%
Pyunik II scores more
23%

Noravank at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Noravank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Noravank host Pyunik II

May 3, 2021: Noravank take on Pyunik II in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Noravank host Pyunik II at Charentsavan City Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.