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Pyunik II vs Lernayin Artsakh — First League 2019

Pyunik II
Pyunik II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lernayin Artsakh
Lernayin Artsakh
3/19/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Pyunik II37%
×Draw22%
Lernayin Artsakh40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyunik II
1.71
Lernayin Artsakh
1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 81 away

creates per match

Pyunik II
1.82
Lernayin Artsakh
1.74

allows per match

Pyunik II
1.82
Lernayin Artsakh
1.60

finishing

Pyunik II+0.00on par
Lernayin Artsakh+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyunik II ↓

Lernayin Artsakh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Pyunik II or draw
60%
Pyunik II or Lernayin Artsakh
78%
Draw or Lernayin Artsakh
63%

Winning margin

Pyunik II wins by 2+
19%
Lernayin Artsakh wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Pyunik II 1+ goals
82%
Pyunik II 2+ goals
51%
Pyunik II 3+ goals
24%
Lernayin Artsakh 1+ goals
83%
Lernayin Artsakh 2+ goals
53%
Lernayin Artsakh 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Pyunik II (draw refunded)
48%
Lernayin Artsakh (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyunik II at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.82 · 99 matches

Lernayin Artsakh away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyunik II attack 1.82 + Lernayin Artsakh defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.71

Lernayin Artsakh attack 1.74 + Pyunik II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pyunik II scores more
37%
level
22%
Lernayin Artsakh scores more
40%

Lernayin Artsakh at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lernayin Artsakh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pyunik II vs Lernayin Artsakh

Pyunik II beat Lernayin Artsakh 1-0 in First League on March 19, 2026.