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Lernayin Artsakh vs Pyunik II — First League 2019

Lernayin Artsakh
Lernayin Artsakh
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Pyunik II
Pyunik II
8/28/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 5Kasakhi Marzik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Lernayin Artsakh51%
×Draw22%
Pyunik II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lernayin Artsakh
2.02
Pyunik II
1.41

Lernayin Artsakh creates 43% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 98 away

creates per match

Lernayin Artsakh
1.89
Pyunik II
1.46

allows per match

Lernayin Artsakh
1.35
Pyunik II
2.16

finishing

Lernayin Artsakh+0.00on par
Pyunik II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lernayin Artsakh ↓

Pyunik II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Lernayin Artsakh or draw
73%
Lernayin Artsakh or Pyunik II
78%
Draw or Pyunik II
49%

Winning margin

Lernayin Artsakh wins by 2+
30%
Pyunik II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lernayin Artsakh 1+ goals
87%
Lernayin Artsakh 2+ goals
60%
Lernayin Artsakh 3+ goals
33%
Pyunik II 1+ goals
76%
Pyunik II 2+ goals
41%
Pyunik II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lernayin Artsakh (draw refunded)
66%
Pyunik II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lernayin Artsakh at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Pyunik II away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lernayin Artsakh attack 1.89 + Pyunik II defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.02

Pyunik II attack 1.46 + Lernayin Artsakh defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lernayin Artsakh scores more
51%
level
22%
Pyunik II scores more
27%

Lernayin Artsakh at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lernayin Artsakh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Lernayin Artsakh 1–2 Pyunik II

Pyunik II beat Lernayin Artsakh 2-1 in First League on August 28, 2025.

The match was played at Kasakhi Marzik Stadium in Ashtarak.