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Pyramids FC vs Renaissance Berkane — CAF Champions League 2019

Pyramids FC
Pyramids FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkane
2/1/2026CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Round 430 June Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Pyramids FC69%
×Draw19%
Renaissance Berkane12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyramids FC
2.16
Renaissance Berkane
0.77

Pyramids FC creates 181% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 7 away

creates per match

Pyramids FC
2.89
Renaissance Berkane
0.71

allows per match

Pyramids FC
0.83
Renaissance Berkane
1.43

finishing

Pyramids FC+0.00on par
Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyramids FC ↓

Renaissance Berkane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Pyramids FC or draw
88%
Pyramids FC or Renaissance Berkane
81%
Draw or Renaissance Berkane
31%

Winning margin

Pyramids FC wins by 2+
45%
Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Pyramids FC 1+ goals
88%
Pyramids FC 2+ goals
63%
Pyramids FC 3+ goals
36%
Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
54%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
18%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Pyramids FC (draw refunded)
85%
Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyramids FC at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Renaissance Berkane away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyramids FC attack 2.89 + Renaissance Berkane defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.16

Renaissance Berkane attack 0.71 + Pyramids FC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Pyramids FC scores more
69%
level
19%
Renaissance Berkane scores more
12%

Pyramids FC at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Pyramids FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: Pyramids FC 3–0 Renaissance Berkane

Pyramids FC beat Renaissance Berkane 3-0 in CAF Champions League on February 1, 2026.

The match was played at 30 June Stadium in Cairo.