Pyramids FC 3–1 National Bank of Egypt

Pyramids FC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

National Bank of Egypt

11/22/2024

Premier League · Round 330 June Air Defence Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Pyramids FC50%

×Draw26%

National Bank of Egypt24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pyramids FCExpected goals in this matchNational Bank of Egypt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.95

Pyramids FC

1.51

National Bank of Egypt

0.95

Pyramids FC creates 59% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 97 away

1.83

creates per match

1.14

0.77

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Pyramids FC

1.83

National Bank of Egypt

1.14

allows per match

Pyramids FC

0.77

National Bank of Egypt

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pyramids FC+0.00on par

National Bank of Egypt+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyramids FC ↓

National Bank of Egypt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Pyramids FC or draw

76%

Pyramids FC or National Bank of Egypt

74%

Draw or National Bank of Egypt

50%

Winning margin

Pyramids FC wins by 2+

26%

National Bank of Egypt wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Pyramids FC 1+ goals

78%

Pyramids FC 2+ goals

44%

Pyramids FC 3+ goals

19%

National Bank of Egypt 1+ goals

61%

National Bank of Egypt 2+ goals

25%

National Bank of Egypt 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Pyramids FC (draw refunded)

68%

National Bank of Egypt (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyramids FC at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.77 · 126 matches

National Bank of Egypt away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.19 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyramids FC attack 1.83 + National Bank of Egypt defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.51

National Bank of Egypt attack 1.14 + Pyramids FC defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pyramids FC scores more

50%

level

26%

National Bank of Egypt scores more

24%

Pyramids FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pyramids FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff