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Pyramids FC vs Misr EL Makasa — League Cup 2021

Pyramids FC
Pyramids FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Misr EL Makasa
Misr EL Makasa
1/30/2022League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 530 June Air Defence Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pyramids FC25%
×Draw25%
Misr EL Makasa50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyramids FC
1.04
Misr EL Makasa
1.59

Misr EL Makasa creates 53% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Pyramids FC
1.33
Misr EL Makasa
0.75

allows per match

Pyramids FC
2.44
Misr EL Makasa
0.75

finishing

Pyramids FC+0.00on par
Misr EL Makasa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyramids FC ↓

Misr EL Makasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pyramids FC or draw
50%
Pyramids FC or Misr EL Makasa
75%
Draw or Misr EL Makasa
75%

Winning margin

Pyramids FC wins by 2+
9%
Misr EL Makasa wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Pyramids FC 1+ goals
65%
Pyramids FC 2+ goals
28%
Pyramids FC 3+ goals
9%
Misr EL Makasa 1+ goals
80%
Misr EL Makasa 2+ goals
47%
Misr EL Makasa 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Pyramids FC (draw refunded)
33%
Misr EL Makasa (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyramids FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

Misr EL Makasa away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyramids FC attack 1.33 + Misr EL Makasa defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Misr EL Makasa attack 0.75 + Pyramids FC defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pyramids FC scores more
25%
level
25%
Misr EL Makasa scores more
50%

Misr EL Makasa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Misr EL Makasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pyramids FC vs Misr EL Makasa

Pyramids FC beat Misr EL Makasa 2-0 in League Cup on January 30, 2022.

The match was played at 30 June Air Defence Stadium in Cairo.