Pyramids FC 2–1 Misr EL Makasa: Result & Stats

Pyramids FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Misr EL Makasa

10/27/2021

Premier League · Round 130 June Air Defence Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Pyramids FC56%

×Draw25%

Misr EL Makasa19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pyramids FCExpected goals in this matchMisr EL Makasa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.82

Pyramids FC

1.60

Misr EL Makasa

0.82

Pyramids FC creates 95% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 68 away

1.83

creates per match

0.87

0.77

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Pyramids FC

1.83

Misr EL Makasa

0.87

allows per match

Pyramids FC

0.77

Misr EL Makasa

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pyramids FC+0.00on par

Misr EL Makasa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyramids FC ↓

Misr EL Makasa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Pyramids FC or draw

81%

Pyramids FC or Misr EL Makasa

75%

Draw or Misr EL Makasa

44%

Winning margin

Pyramids FC wins by 2+

30%

Misr EL Makasa wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Pyramids FC 1+ goals

80%

Pyramids FC 2+ goals

47%

Pyramids FC 3+ goals

22%

Misr EL Makasa 1+ goals

56%

Misr EL Makasa 2+ goals

20%

Misr EL Makasa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Pyramids FC (draw refunded)

74%

Misr EL Makasa (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyramids FC at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.77 · 126 matches

Misr EL Makasa away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyramids FC attack 1.83 + Misr EL Makasa defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.60

Misr EL Makasa attack 0.87 + Pyramids FC defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Pyramids FC scores more

56%

level

25%

Misr EL Makasa scores more

19%

Pyramids FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Pyramids FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff