Pyramids FC 3–1 Masr: Result & Stats | League Cup

Pyramids FC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Masr

1/26/2024

League Cup · Group Stage - 330 June Air Defence Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Pyramids FC29%

×Draw24%

Masr47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pyramids FCExpected goals in this matchMasr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.72

Pyramids FC

1.29

Masr

1.72

Masr creates 33% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

1.33

creates per match

1.00

2.44

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Pyramids FC

1.33

Masr

1.00

allows per match

Pyramids FC

2.44

Masr

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pyramids FC+0.00on par

Masr+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyramids FC ↓

Masr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Pyramids FC or draw

53%

Pyramids FC or Masr

76%

Draw or Masr

71%

Winning margin

Pyramids FC wins by 2+

12%

Masr wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Pyramids FC 1+ goals

72%

Pyramids FC 2+ goals

37%

Pyramids FC 3+ goals

14%

Masr 1+ goals

82%

Masr 2+ goals

51%

Masr 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Pyramids FC (draw refunded)

38%

Masr (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyramids FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

Masr away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyramids FC attack 1.33 + Masr defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Masr attack 1.00 + Pyramids FC defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pyramids FC scores more

29%

level

24%

Masr scores more

47%

Masr at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Masr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff