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Pyramids FC vs Mamelodi Sundowns — CAF Champions League 2019

Pyramids FC
Pyramids FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
12/19/2023CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group A - 430 June Air Defence Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Pyramids FC52%
×Draw23%
Mamelodi Sundowns25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyramids FC
1.88
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.23

Pyramids FC creates 53% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 42 away

creates per match

Pyramids FC
2.89
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.62

allows per match

Pyramids FC
0.83
Mamelodi Sundowns
0.86

finishing

Pyramids FC+0.00on par
Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyramids FC ↓

Mamelodi Sundowns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Pyramids FC or draw
75%
Pyramids FC or Mamelodi Sundowns
77%
Draw or Mamelodi Sundowns
48%

Winning margin

Pyramids FC wins by 2+
30%
Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Pyramids FC 1+ goals
85%
Pyramids FC 2+ goals
56%
Pyramids FC 3+ goals
29%
Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
71%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
35%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pyramids FC (draw refunded)
68%
Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyramids FC at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Mamelodi Sundowns away — creates 1.62, concedes 0.86 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyramids FC attack 2.89 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.88

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.62 + Pyramids FC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pyramids FC scores more
52%
level
23%
Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
25%

Pyramids FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Pyramids FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: Pyramids FC 0–1 Mamelodi Sundowns

Mamelodi Sundowns beat Pyramids FC 1-0 in CAF Champions League on December 19, 2023.

The match was played at 30 June Air Defence Stadium in Cairo.