Mamelodi Sundowns 0–0 Pyramids FC: Result & Stats

Mamelodi Sundowns

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pyramids FC

12/10/2023

CAF Champions League · Group A - 3Loftus Versfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Mamelodi Sundowns53%

×Draw27%

Pyramids FC20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mamelodi SundownsExpected goals in this matchPyramids FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.76

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.42

Pyramids FC

0.76

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 87% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 18 away

2.07

creates per match

1.00

0.51

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Mamelodi Sundowns

2.07

Pyramids FC

1.00

allows per match

Mamelodi Sundowns

0.51

Pyramids FC

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Pyramids FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamelodi Sundowns ↓

Pyramids FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Mamelodi Sundowns or draw

80%

Mamelodi Sundowns or Pyramids FC

73%

Draw or Pyramids FC

47%

Winning margin

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+

26%

Pyramids FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals

76%

Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals

41%

Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals

17%

Pyramids FC 1+ goals

53%

Pyramids FC 2+ goals

18%

Pyramids FC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)

72%

Pyramids FC (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamelodi Sundowns at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.51 · 41 matches

Pyramids FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 2.07 + Pyramids FC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.42

Pyramids FC attack 1.00 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more

53%

level

27%

Pyramids FC scores more

20%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff