Pyramids FC 4–1 FAR Rabat: Result & Stats

Pyramids FC

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

FAR Rabat

Ibrahim Adel 67', 38'

F. Mayele 12', 2'

A. Hadraf 45'

4/1/2025

CAF Champions League · Quarter-finals30 June Air Defence Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Pyramids FC63%

×Draw21%

FAR Rabat16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pyramids FCExpected goals in this matchFAR Rabat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

0.85

Pyramids FC

1.95

FAR Rabat

0.85

Pyramids FC creates 129% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

2.89

creates per match

0.88

0.83

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Pyramids FC

2.89

FAR Rabat

0.88

allows per match

Pyramids FC

0.83

FAR Rabat

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pyramids FC+0.00on par

FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyramids FC ↓

FAR Rabat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Pyramids FC or draw

84%

Pyramids FC or FAR Rabat

79%

Draw or FAR Rabat

37%

Winning margin

Pyramids FC wins by 2+

38%

FAR Rabat wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Pyramids FC 1+ goals

86%

Pyramids FC 2+ goals

58%

Pyramids FC 3+ goals

31%

FAR Rabat 1+ goals

57%

FAR Rabat 2+ goals

21%

FAR Rabat 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Pyramids FC (draw refunded)

80%

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyramids FC at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

FAR Rabat away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyramids FC attack 2.89 + FAR Rabat defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.95

FAR Rabat attack 0.88 + Pyramids FC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Pyramids FC scores more

63%

level

21%

FAR Rabat scores more

16%

Pyramids FC at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Pyramids FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

Ibrahim Adel

Pyramids FC · M

9.2

Match Events

2'

F. Mayele↳ Mostafa Fathi

12'

F. Mayele↳ Ibrahim Adel

19'

Ibrahim Blati Toure

23'

Youssef El FahliPenalty cancelled

38'

Ibrahim Adel↳ Ramadan Sobhi

45+8'

Ibrahim AdelPenalty cancelled

45'

A. Hadraf↳ Y. El Fahli

52'

Mohamed Rabie Hrimat

58'

A. Zouhzouh← A. Hammoudan

67'

Ibrahim Adel↳ B. Touré

70'

W. El Karti← Ramadan Sobhi

72'

J. Beya← Y. El Fahli

72'

A. Bach← E. Boukhriss

76'

Tó Carneiro

79'

Mohamed Hamdy← Karim Hafez

79'

A. Nakach← Tó Carneiro

79'

Z. Ajoughlal← A. Hadraf

86'

Marwan Hamdy← F. Mayele

86'

Ahmed Tawfik← M. Chibi

87'

Ahmed Atef← Ibrahim Adel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PyramidsFAR

Overview

43%Possession57%

12Total Shots6

2Corners5

21Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots6

6On Target2

5Off Target3

1Blocked1

6Inside Box5

6Outside Box1

Passing

43%Possession57%

331Total Passes441

233Accurate Passes328

70%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

21Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0