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FAR Rabat vs Pyramids FC — CAF Champions League 2019

FAR Rabat
FAR Rabatadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pyramids FC
Pyramids FC
J. Beya 82'
Y. El Fahli 8'
4/8/2025CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Quarter-finalsStade d'Honneur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

FAR Rabat50%
×Draw28%
Pyramids FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAR Rabat
1.33
Pyramids FC
0.75

FAR Rabat creates 77% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

FAR Rabat
1.88
Pyramids FC
1.00

allows per match

FAR Rabat
0.50
Pyramids FC
0.78

finishing

FAR Rabat+0.00on par
Pyramids FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAR Rabat ↓

Pyramids FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

FAR Rabat or draw
79%
FAR Rabat or Pyramids FC
72%
Draw or Pyramids FC
50%

Winning margin

FAR Rabat wins by 2+
24%
Pyramids FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FAR Rabat 1+ goals
74%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
38%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
15%
Pyramids FC 1+ goals
53%
Pyramids FC 2+ goals
17%
Pyramids FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
71%
Pyramids FC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAR Rabat at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.50 · 16 matches

Pyramids FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAR Rabat attack 1.88 + Pyramids FC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.33

Pyramids FC attack 1.00 + FAR Rabat defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FAR Rabat scores more
50%
level
28%
Pyramids FC scores more
21%

FAR Rabat at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
K. Aït OuarkhaneFAR RabatFAR Rabat · M
7.7

Match Events

8'
Y. El Fahli↳ K. Aït Ouarkhane
30'
A. Nakach← H. Inonga
40'
Karim Hafez
45+3'
Abdelfettah Hadraf
45+2'
Fiston MayeleGoal cancelled
47'
Ahmed El-Shenawy
57'
Ali Gabr
63'
F. Mendy← Tó Carneiro
67'
Ahmed Atef← Karim Hafez
71'
J. Beya← Y. El Fahli
71'
A. Hammoudan← A. Hadraf
76'
Youssef Obama← Mohamed Hamdy
82'
J. Beya↳ A. Hammoudan
89'
Youssef Obama
90'
Ahmed Samy← Ahmed Tawfik
90'
Marwan Hamdy← F. Mayele

Possession

66%FAR

Shots

13FAR

Pass accuracy

57%FAR

Statistics

FARPyramids
Overview
66%Possession34%
13Total Shots5
9Corners1
12Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots5
3On Target2
8Off Target3
2Blocked0
10Inside Box2
3Outside Box3
Passing
66%Possession34%
449Total Passes239
355Accurate Passes140
79%Pass Accuracy59%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls13
1Yellow Cards4
2Offsides2

Match Recap: FAR Rabat vs Pyramids FC

FAR Rabat beat Pyramids FC 2-0 in CAF Champions League on April 8, 2025.

Goals: Y. El Fahli (8'), J. Beya (82').

FAR Rabat controlled possession (66%) and registered 13 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stade d'Honneur in Meknès.