Pyramids FC 6–0 Djoliba: Result & Stats

Pyramids FC

FT

6 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Djoliba

1/18/2025

CAF Champions League · Group Stage - 630 June Air Defence Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Pyramids FC82%

×Draw13%

Djoliba5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pyramids FCExpected goals in this matchDjoliba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

0.48

Pyramids FC

2.52

Djoliba

0.48

Pyramids FC creates 425% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 7 away

2.89

creates per match

0.14

0.83

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Pyramids FC

2.89

Djoliba

0.14

allows per match

Pyramids FC

0.83

Djoliba

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pyramids FC+0.00on par

Djoliba+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyramids FC ↓

Djoliba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–16%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Pyramids FC or draw

95%

Pyramids FC or Djoliba

87%

Draw or Djoliba

18%

Winning margin

Pyramids FC wins by 2+

59%

Djoliba wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Pyramids FC 1+ goals

92%

Pyramids FC 2+ goals

71%

Pyramids FC 3+ goals

45%

Djoliba 1+ goals

38%

Djoliba 2+ goals

8%

Djoliba 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Pyramids FC (draw refunded)

94%

Djoliba (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyramids FC at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Djoliba away — creates 0.14, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyramids FC attack 2.89 + Djoliba defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.52

Djoliba attack 0.14 + Pyramids FC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Pyramids FC scores more

82%

level

13%

Djoliba scores more

5%

Pyramids FC at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Pyramids FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff