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Djoliba vs Pyramids FC — CAF Champions League 2019

Djoliba
Djoliba
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pyramids FC
Pyramids FC
12/8/2024CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group Stage - 2Stade 26 Mars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Djoliba44%
×Draw33%
Pyramids FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djoliba
1.06
Pyramids FC
0.67

Djoliba creates 58% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 18 away

creates per match

Djoliba
1.33
Pyramids FC
1.00

allows per match

Djoliba
0.33
Pyramids FC
0.78

finishing

Djoliba+0.00on par
Pyramids FC+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djoliba ↓

Pyramids FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Djoliba or draw
77%
Djoliba or Pyramids FC
67%
Draw or Pyramids FC
56%

Winning margin

Djoliba wins by 2+
18%
Pyramids FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Djoliba 1+ goals
65%
Djoliba 2+ goals
29%
Djoliba 3+ goals
9%
Pyramids FC 1+ goals
49%
Pyramids FC 2+ goals
15%
Pyramids FC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Djoliba (draw refunded)
66%
Pyramids FC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djoliba at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Pyramids FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djoliba attack 1.33 + Pyramids FC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.06

Pyramids FC attack 1.00 + Djoliba defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Djoliba scores more
44%
level
33%
Pyramids FC scores more
23%

Djoliba at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Djoliba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djoliba vs Pyramids FC

Djoliba and Pyramids FC drew 0-0 in CAF Champions League on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stade 26 Mars in Bamako.