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Pyeongtaek Citizen vs Jecheon Citizen — K4 League 2026

Pyeongtaek Citizen
Pyeongtaek Citizen
FT
2 – 3
Jecheon Citizen
Jecheon Citizen
6/21/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Pyeongtaek Citizen19%
×Draw23%
Jecheon Citizen58%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyeongtaek Citizen
0.95
Jecheon Citizen
1.85

Jecheon Citizen creates 95% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Pyeongtaek Citizen
0.90
Jecheon Citizen
1.11

allows per match

Pyeongtaek Citizen
2.60
Jecheon Citizen
1.00

finishing

Pyeongtaek Citizen+0.00on par
Jecheon Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyeongtaek Citizen ↓

Jecheon Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Pyeongtaek Citizen or draw
42%
Pyeongtaek Citizen or Jecheon Citizen
77%
Draw or Jecheon Citizen
81%

Winning margin

Pyeongtaek Citizen wins by 2+
6%
Jecheon Citizen wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Pyeongtaek Citizen 1+ goals
61%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 2+ goals
25%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 3+ goals
7%
Jecheon Citizen 1+ goals
84%
Jecheon Citizen 2+ goals
55%
Jecheon Citizen 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Pyeongtaek Citizen (draw refunded)
25%
Jecheon Citizen (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyeongtaek Citizen at home — creates 0.90, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

Jecheon Citizen away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyeongtaek Citizen attack 0.90 + Jecheon Citizen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Jecheon Citizen attack 1.11 + Pyeongtaek Citizen defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Pyeongtaek Citizen scores more
19%
level
23%
Jecheon Citizen scores more
58%

Jecheon Citizen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Jecheon Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K4 League: Pyeongtaek Citizen 2–3 Jecheon Citizen

Jecheon Citizen beat Pyeongtaek Citizen 3-2 in K4 League on June 21, 2026.