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Jecheon Citizen vs Pyeongtaek Citizen — K4 League 2026

Jecheon Citizen
Jecheon Citizen
FT
1 – 1
Pyeongtaek Citizen
Pyeongtaek Citizen
3/15/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Jecheon Citizen40%
×Draw26%
Pyeongtaek Citizen34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jecheon Citizen
1.42
Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Jecheon Citizen
1.00
Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.17

allows per match

Jecheon Citizen
1.43
Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.83

finishing

Jecheon Citizen+0.00on par
Pyeongtaek Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jecheon Citizen ↓

Pyeongtaek Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Jecheon Citizen or draw
66%
Jecheon Citizen or Pyeongtaek Citizen
74%
Draw or Pyeongtaek Citizen
60%

Winning margin

Jecheon Citizen wins by 2+
19%
Pyeongtaek Citizen wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jecheon Citizen 1+ goals
76%
Jecheon Citizen 2+ goals
41%
Jecheon Citizen 3+ goals
17%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 1+ goals
73%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 2+ goals
37%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jecheon Citizen (draw refunded)
54%
Pyeongtaek Citizen (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jecheon Citizen at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Pyeongtaek Citizen away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jecheon Citizen attack 1.00 + Pyeongtaek Citizen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Pyeongtaek Citizen attack 1.17 + Jecheon Citizen defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jecheon Citizen scores more
40%
level
26%
Pyeongtaek Citizen scores more
34%

Jecheon Citizen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Jecheon Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jecheon Citizen vs Pyeongtaek Citizen

Jecheon Citizen and Pyeongtaek Citizen drew 1-1 in K4 League on March 15, 2026.