Pyeongtaek Citizen 1–0 Gyeongju Citizen

Pyeongtaek Citizen

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gyeongju Citizen

7/4/2020

K3 League · Round 7Pyeongtaek Ichon Leports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Pyeongtaek Citizen39%

×Draw27%

Gyeongju Citizen34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pyeongtaek CitizenExpected goals in this matchGyeongju Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.22

Pyeongtaek Citizen

1.33

Gyeongju Citizen

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 12 away

1.00

creates per match

0.83

1.60

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Pyeongtaek Citizen

1.00

Gyeongju Citizen

0.83

allows per match

Pyeongtaek Citizen

1.60

Gyeongju Citizen

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pyeongtaek Citizen+0.00on par

Gyeongju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyeongtaek Citizen ↓

Gyeongju Citizen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Pyeongtaek Citizen or draw

66%

Pyeongtaek Citizen or Gyeongju Citizen

73%

Draw or Gyeongju Citizen

61%

Winning margin

Pyeongtaek Citizen wins by 2+

18%

Gyeongju Citizen wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Pyeongtaek Citizen 1+ goals

74%

Pyeongtaek Citizen 2+ goals

38%

Pyeongtaek Citizen 3+ goals

15%

Gyeongju Citizen 1+ goals

70%

Gyeongju Citizen 2+ goals

34%

Gyeongju Citizen 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pyeongtaek Citizen (draw refunded)

54%

Gyeongju Citizen (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyeongtaek Citizen at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 25 matches

Gyeongju Citizen away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyeongtaek Citizen attack 1.00 + Gyeongju Citizen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Gyeongju Citizen attack 0.83 + Pyeongtaek Citizen defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pyeongtaek Citizen scores more

39%

level

27%

Gyeongju Citizen scores more

34%

Pyeongtaek Citizen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pyeongtaek Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff