Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gyeongju Citizen vs Pyeongtaek Citizen — K3 League 2026

Gyeongju Citizen
Gyeongju Citizen
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Pyeongtaek Citizen
Pyeongtaek Citizen
10/10/2020K3 LeagueK3 League · Relegation Round - 4Gyeongju Citizen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Gyeongju Citizen33%
×Draw29%
Pyeongtaek Citizen39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyeongju Citizen
1.06
Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.18

Pyeongtaek Citizen creates 11% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 25 away

creates per match

Gyeongju Citizen
0.60
Pyeongtaek Citizen
0.76

allows per match

Gyeongju Citizen
1.60
Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.52

finishing

Gyeongju Citizen+0.00on par
Pyeongtaek Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyeongju Citizen ↓

Pyeongtaek Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Gyeongju Citizen or draw
61%
Gyeongju Citizen or Pyeongtaek Citizen
71%
Draw or Pyeongtaek Citizen
67%

Winning margin

Gyeongju Citizen wins by 2+
13%
Pyeongtaek Citizen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Gyeongju Citizen 1+ goals
65%
Gyeongju Citizen 2+ goals
29%
Gyeongju Citizen 3+ goals
9%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 1+ goals
69%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 2+ goals
33%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gyeongju Citizen (draw refunded)
46%
Pyeongtaek Citizen (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyeongju Citizen at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Pyeongtaek Citizen away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.52 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyeongju Citizen attack 0.60 + Pyeongtaek Citizen defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.06

Pyeongtaek Citizen attack 0.76 + Gyeongju Citizen defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gyeongju Citizen scores more
33%
level
29%
Pyeongtaek Citizen scores more
39%

Pyeongtaek Citizen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pyeongtaek Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gyeongju Citizen vs Pyeongtaek Citizen

Pyeongtaek Citizen beat Gyeongju Citizen 3-1 in K3 League on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Gyeongju Citizen Stadium in Gyeongju.