Pyeongtaek Citizen 1–5 Gimhae City: Result & Stats

Pyeongtaek Citizen

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 1

Gimhae City

3/23/2024

FA Cup · 2nd RoundPyeongtaek Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Pyeongtaek Citizen29%

×Draw22%

Gimhae City49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pyeongtaek CitizenExpected goals in this matchGimhae City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

2.00

Pyeongtaek Citizen

1.50

Gimhae City

2.00

Gimhae City creates 33% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.60

creates per match

2.00

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Pyeongtaek Citizen

1.60

Gimhae City

2.00

allows per match

Pyeongtaek Citizen

2.00

Gimhae City

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pyeongtaek Citizen+0.00on par

Gimhae City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyeongtaek Citizen ↓

Gimhae City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Pyeongtaek Citizen or draw

51%

Pyeongtaek Citizen or Gimhae City

78%

Draw or Gimhae City

71%

Winning margin

Pyeongtaek Citizen wins by 2+

13%

Gimhae City wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Pyeongtaek Citizen 1+ goals

78%

Pyeongtaek Citizen 2+ goals

44%

Pyeongtaek Citizen 3+ goals

19%

Gimhae City 1+ goals

86%

Gimhae City 2+ goals

59%

Gimhae City 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Pyeongtaek Citizen (draw refunded)

37%

Gimhae City (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyeongtaek Citizen at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Gimhae City away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyeongtaek Citizen attack 1.60 + Gimhae City defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

Gimhae City attack 2.00 + Pyeongtaek Citizen defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pyeongtaek Citizen scores more

29%

level

22%

Gimhae City scores more

49%

Gimhae City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gimhae City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff