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Gimhae City vs Pyeongtaek Citizen — K3 League 2026

Gimhae City
Gimhae City
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pyeongtaek Citizen
Pyeongtaek Citizen
7/25/2020K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 10Gimhae Civil Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Gimhae City54%
×Draw26%
Pyeongtaek Citizen21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimhae City
1.53
Pyeongtaek Citizen
0.84

Gimhae City creates 82% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 25 away

creates per match

Gimhae City
1.54
Pyeongtaek Citizen
0.76

allows per match

Gimhae City
0.92
Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.52

finishing

Gimhae City+0.00on par
Pyeongtaek Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimhae City ↓

Pyeongtaek Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gimhae City or draw
79%
Gimhae City or Pyeongtaek Citizen
74%
Draw or Pyeongtaek Citizen
46%

Winning margin

Gimhae City wins by 2+
28%
Pyeongtaek Citizen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gimhae City 1+ goals
78%
Gimhae City 2+ goals
45%
Gimhae City 3+ goals
20%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 1+ goals
57%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 2+ goals
21%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gimhae City (draw refunded)
72%
Pyeongtaek Citizen (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimhae City at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.92 · 103 matches

Pyeongtaek Citizen away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.52 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimhae City attack 1.54 + Pyeongtaek Citizen defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.53

Pyeongtaek Citizen attack 0.76 + Gimhae City defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Gimhae City scores more
54%
level
26%
Pyeongtaek Citizen scores more
21%

Gimhae City at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Gimhae City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K3 League: Gimhae City 5–0 Pyeongtaek Citizen

Gimhae City beat Pyeongtaek Citizen 5-0 in K3 League on July 25, 2020.

The match was played at Gimhae Civil Stadium in Gimhae.