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PVV vs Flora — Eerste Divisie 2019

PVV
PVV
FT
4 – 2
Flora
Flora
2/24/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 1Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

PVV66%
×Draw18%
Flora16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PVV
2.45
Flora
1.14

PVV creates 115% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 31 away

creates per match

PVV
2.09
Flora
1.23

allows per match

PVV
1.05
Flora
2.81

finishing

PVV+0.00on par
Flora+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PVV ↓

Flora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

PVV or draw
84%
PVV or Flora
82%
Draw or Flora
34%

Winning margin

PVV wins by 2+
44%
Flora wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

PVV 1+ goals
91%
PVV 2+ goals
70%
PVV 3+ goals
44%
Flora 1+ goals
68%
Flora 2+ goals
32%
Flora 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

PVV (draw refunded)
80%
Flora (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PVV at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

Flora away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.81 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PVV attack 2.09 + Flora defence 2.81 → ÷2 → 2.45

Flora attack 1.23 + PVV defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

PVV scores more
66%
level
18%
Flora scores more
16%

PVV at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "PVV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PVV 4 – 2 Flora

PVV beat Flora 4-2 in Eerste Divisie on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.