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Flora vs PVV — Eerste Divisie 2019

Flora
Flora
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
PVV
PVV
3/15/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 7Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Flora26%
×Draw22%
PVV52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flora
1.33
PVV
1.95

PVV creates 47% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 48 away

creates per match

Flora
1.29
PVV
1.60

allows per match

Flora
2.29
PVV
1.38

finishing

Flora+0.00on par
PVV+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flora ↓

PVV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Flora or draw
48%
Flora or PVV
78%
Draw or PVV
74%

Winning margin

Flora wins by 2+
11%
PVV wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Flora 1+ goals
74%
Flora 2+ goals
38%
Flora 3+ goals
15%
PVV 1+ goals
86%
PVV 2+ goals
58%
PVV 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Flora (draw refunded)
34%
PVV (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flora at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.29 · 31 matches

PVV away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flora attack 1.29 + PVV defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

PVV attack 1.60 + Flora defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Flora scores more
26%
level
22%
PVV scores more
52%

PVV at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "PVV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Flora 1–0 PVV

Flora beat PVV 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.