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Putnok VSE vs Mezőkövesd II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Putnok VSE
Putnok VSE
FT
3 – 0
Mezőkövesd II
Mezőkövesd II
8/16/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 4Várady Béla Sportközpont

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Putnok VSE70%
×Draw17%
Mezőkövesd II13%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Putnok VSE
2.58
Mezőkövesd II
1.02

Putnok VSE creates 153% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 19 away

creates per match

Putnok VSE
1.99
Mezőkövesd II
0.89

allows per match

Putnok VSE
1.16
Mezőkövesd II
3.16

finishing

Putnok VSE+0.00on par
Mezőkövesd II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Putnok VSE ↓

Mezőkövesd II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Putnok VSE or draw
87%
Putnok VSE or Mezőkövesd II
83%
Draw or Mezőkövesd II
30%

Winning margin

Putnok VSE wins by 2+
49%
Mezőkövesd II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Putnok VSE 1+ goals
92%
Putnok VSE 2+ goals
72%
Putnok VSE 3+ goals
47%
Mezőkövesd II 1+ goals
64%
Mezőkövesd II 2+ goals
27%
Mezőkövesd II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Putnok VSE (draw refunded)
84%
Mezőkövesd II (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Putnok VSE at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.16 · 110 matches

Mezőkövesd II away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Putnok VSE attack 1.99 + Mezőkövesd II defence 3.16 → ÷2 → 2.58

Mezőkövesd II attack 0.89 + Putnok VSE defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Putnok VSE scores more
70%
level
17%
Mezőkövesd II scores more
13%

Putnok VSE at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Putnok VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Putnok VSE 3–0 Mezőkövesd II

Putnok VSE beat Mezőkövesd II 3-0 in NB III - Northeast on August 16, 2020.

The match was played at Várady Béla Sportközpont in Putnok.