Mezőkövesd II 2–0 Putnok VSE: Result & Stats

Mezőkövesd II

FT

2 – 0

Putnok VSE

3/7/2021

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 23Mezőkövesd Zsóry Edzőpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mezőkövesd II29%

×Draw22%

Putnok VSE49%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mezőkövesd IIExpected goals in this matchPutnok VSE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.94

Mezőkövesd II

1.46

Putnok VSE

1.94

Putnok VSE creates 33% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 112 away

1.37

creates per match

1.63

2.26

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Mezőkövesd II

1.37

Putnok VSE

1.63

allows per match

Mezőkövesd II

2.26

Putnok VSE

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mezőkövesd II+0.00on par

Putnok VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mezőkövesd II ↓

Putnok VSE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Mezőkövesd II or draw

51%

Mezőkövesd II or Putnok VSE

78%

Draw or Putnok VSE

71%

Winning margin

Mezőkövesd II wins by 2+

13%

Putnok VSE wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Mezőkövesd II 1+ goals

77%

Mezőkövesd II 2+ goals

43%

Mezőkövesd II 3+ goals

18%

Putnok VSE 1+ goals

86%

Putnok VSE 2+ goals

58%

Putnok VSE 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Mezőkövesd II (draw refunded)

37%

Putnok VSE (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mezőkövesd II at home — creates 1.37, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

Putnok VSE away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.54 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mezőkövesd II attack 1.37 + Putnok VSE defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.46

Putnok VSE attack 1.63 + Mezőkövesd II defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mezőkövesd II scores more

29%

level

22%

Putnok VSE scores more

49%

Putnok VSE at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Putnok VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff